how many innos can there be if we are in setup A? 1 or 2? cause if you're saying sino is being too forced, then you're saying im basically evil tooo....which is impossible cause it's me
[23:19:33] DarknessB: Sino is Mass Murderer -- I don't care if there isn't one in the setup!
[23:19:39] DarknessB:-vote Sino
Also, you said you're starting to lean towards setup B, but you said in one of your first posts that you were "convinced" that it was setup B. So... which is it?
Color me unconvinced about you, Stealth.
Well I'm not going to be able to post again before the 24 hours is up.
The only person I really feel sketchy about is Stealth, so I'd say at this point that I am convinced that there is a conspiracy (and the rest of you are pretty good liars, I gotta say). My PM will reflect that. Hopefully I'm either right or in the minority.
Day chat is over. It is now time for all innocents to submit their final guesses on whether or not there is a conspriacy.
@SuperJack , @Sino , @Mesk514 , @Stealthbomber16 , @Unknown1234 , @Lysergic
Game over! @Mesk514 has successfully deduced that therexis a conspiracy!
Odds were that the game was Conspirators anyways, so I'm not too surprised that she voted Conspiracy anyways.
Was fun, but Mesk if I was the innocent I still wouldn't have believed you with a possibility of
5/6 people being evil.
You 100% lose if you go with no conspiracy (as lone Innocent)
You don't 100% lose if you go with yes Conspiracy (still other votes, maybe less chance but still a chance).
Given nobody was planning to vote no conspiracy, her vote wouldn't have "mattered" if she was voting no anyways.
[23:19:33] DarknessB: Sino is Mass Murderer -- I don't care if there isn't one in the setup!
[23:19:39] DarknessB:-vote Sino
Oh, you're doing probability wrong.
If YOU are an innocent, you know I either rolled your number, or a 6, and these are equally likely rolls. Thus, when you're making a decision, there's actually only a 50-50 chance of a conspiracy.
The only balance thing I might change is how many "no conspiracy" votes are needed in scenario B, to discourage the "I'll vote conspiracy just to be safe, and hope if there isn't one that everyone else votes there isn't" playstyle.
Yes, more non mafia forum games like this pls! They are good for the site
Originally Posted by BananaCucho
dusted out my old stats skills and i got 1/6 chance that you're innocent and in setup B. Making it 1/2 would solve the problem.
my math could be wrong though.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
Idk if I'm being trolled or if you guys are rusty at probability, but the current setup makes it so that, IF YOU ARE INNOCENT, there's a 50-50 chance of conspiracy.
Put it this way:
4/6 of the time, there's a conspiracy and you're in on it.
1/6 of the time, there's a conspiracy against you
1/6 of the time, there is no conspiracy.
Thus, if you're not in on a conspiracy, the chance of there being a conspiracy on you is 50%.